Unlike in Russia, where the power of both oligarchs has diminished, Ukraine's oligarchs look like they will be part of the political establishment for some time.
"When you look at the influence of oligarchs in Ukraine and Russia, they have a different nature," said Kostya Bondarenko, an analyst who has written extensively on the subject.
"[Russian President] Vladimir Putin made a step in curtailing the influence of Russia's oligarchs. Mr. Kuchma hasn't taken that step. The oligarchs have wide reign in Ukraine," Mr. Bondarenko said.
One reason stems from last year's "cassette scandal," when Mr. Kuchma was said to have been heard telling aides to get rid of Internet journalist Georgy Gongadze, whose headless body was found shortly after the recordings were made public.
In its aftermath, Mr. Kuchma had to rely on old political allies like Grigoriy Surkis, the wealthy and flamboyant president of the Dynamo Kiev soccer club, to help weather the crisis.
Mr. Kuchma had begun to edge away from Mr. Surkis before the scandal because of political disagreements, said Inna Bohoslovska, a lawmaker who is putting together a reform coalition for the March elections.
Mr. Surkis's steadfast support of the president, however, has again gained him favor. He is considered the money behind the Kiev group, which also numbers among its members former President Leonid Kravchuk and Yevhen Marchuk, once head of Ukraine's internal police
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Hryhoriy Surkis frequently uses the expression "within the limits". "Within the limits of democracy", "within the limits of professional obligations", "within the limits of European integration"...[website ellipsis]
It is quite amusing to hear such words from a man whom many people in politics believe to be a "man without limits". Indeed, it is extremely difficult to appraise the extent of Hryhoriy Surkis' influence on [head of the presidential administration and leader of the United Social Democratic Party of Ukraine, USDP, of which Surkis is a member] Viktor Medvedchuk, and through him on everything that goes on in this country. However, this influence should not be overestimated. After all, for the most part the leaders of the Social Democrats are fairly predictable: they want power. Or even more power. And they use any methods they like to achieve their dreams.
Is he a stereotype? Possibly. There is nobody, arguably, who can explain why people think not just badly, but very badly about the United Social Democratic Party of Ukraine. It is probably not a matter of political or ideological categories here, rather of biblical ones. In any event, I was not thinking about political reform [proposed by President Leonid Kuchma], or about good and evil, when I looked into the wide, open and unblinking eyes of Mr Surkis.
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Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, who visited Ukraine with a bipartisan group of senators in August, told a Washington conference last month both the United States and Europe "have not been fully cognizant of the critical role Ukraine plays, and as a result, the aspiration of Ukrainians to see their nation firmly ensconced in the West has drifted."
"It would be a terrible blunder if, because of our inattention and mistakes, we allow Ukraine to slip back into the Russian orbit," Mr. McCain said. Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry also accused President Bush last month of turning a blind eye toward Kiev.
"While Ukraine has generously contributed troops in Iraq, the Bush administration has ignored democratic reversal in that country. We could have been working with Europe over the past several months to formulate a common approach to support democracy in Ukraine," Mr. Kerry said.
Mr. Putin, who has voiced his support for Mr. Bush in the election, did not directly endorse Mr. Yanukovych in the Ukraine race, although he praised the prime minister's economic record of growth, saying the government managed to "concentrate financial resources on solving the main social tasks, such as increasing pensions."
It is rumored that Mr. Putin, a former KGB chief, is not particularly fond of Mr. Yanukovych, who was twice imprisoned, but believes he is Russia's best hope for more integrated relations between the two countries.
Answering questions submitted by phone and via the Internet, Mr. Putin told television viewers he supports joint citizenship for Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, three countries that share a special relationship, when the time is right. He also promised that Ukrainians would not have to obtain special passports to enter the Russian Federation, a move that had been expected to take effect on Jan. 1, 2005.
Mr. Putin's appearance on three Ukrainian TV channels was an unprecedented event. Even outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, in office since 1994, never got that much television exposure. All the channels that broadcast the interview are believed to be controlled by Viktor Medvedchuk, Mr. Kuchma's chief of staff.
Mr. Yushchenko, the opposition leader, told Ukrainians not to put too much stock in Mr. Putin's visit and a spokesman for Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said that even the leader of Russia couldn't affect the outcome of the elections.
In a televised address Friday, Mr. Kuchma called for calm and urged electors to vote their conscience. He reiterated police were not to interfere in the elections, but were to protect "the safety of citizens."
"That even now we can't say who will be the next president, that speaks of real democracy in this country," Mr. Kuchma said.
Some 157,000 police and citizens' groups are expected to keep the peace.
Many Ukrainian observers said they are concerned the campaign has been marked with so many legal violations that the results could be nullified by Mr. Kuchma, a move that would allow him to stay in power for a while longer.
Mr. Kuchma, who is in his second five-year term as president, was barred from running for a third time under Ukraine's Constitution.
State television has aggressively sought to discredit Mr. Yushchenko. Government media played up a report by the prosecutor general's office that a recent reputed poisoning of Mr. Yushchenko was just a viral infection caused by his lifestyle.
Mr. Yushchenko claimed the government had tried to kill him after he fell ill following a meeting with Internal Affairs Ministry officials.
The illness was first thought to be food poisoning, but turned out to have been caused by chemical substances not normally found in food products, according to Austrian doctors who treated the opposition leader in Vienna, Austria.
Mr. Yushchenko was off the campaign trail for nearly a month while recuperating and the illness has left his face temporarily disfigured. Tests to determine the cause of the illness continue, sources said.
posted by Juke 5:35 PM